Probabilistic Mindset and Uncertainty Communication
Forecast fan charts, prediction intervals, and posterior distributions show what the model doesn’t know. Calibrated probabilities turn surprises into learning rather than panic, guiding position sizing, stop-loss logic, and stakeholder expectations with principled humility.
Probabilistic Mindset and Uncertainty Communication
A commodities desk fused ensemble weather forecasts with Bayesian demand models, interpreting spreads as probability-weighted outcomes rather than single targets. Communicating a clear 60–70% band helped leadership align hedges with risk appetite, avoiding whipsaw reactions to noisy weekly prints.